A neoclassical analysis of the Great Recession: a historical comparison

Keisuke Otsu, Florian Gerth

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


In this paper we conduct a quantitative analysis to investigate the pattern of output loss during past banking crisis episodes by comparing the Great Recession, Great Depression and "Inter-Greats" periods. We find that during all periods output does not fully recover after 5 years from the onset of the banking crisis. However, while the output loss during the Great Recession was as large as that during the Great Depression, the output decline was much more gradual during the Great Recession. Moreover, a neoclassical growth model with productivity shocks can account for the Great Recession period extremely well compared to the Great Depression and Inter-Greats periods.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2363-2373
Number of pages11
JournalEconomics Bulletin
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2015
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Economics,Econometrics and Finance


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