Asean’s energy transition towards cleaner energy system: Energy modelling scenarios and policy implications

Han Phoumin, Fukunari Kimura, Jun Arima

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)


The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces tremendous challenges regarding the future energy landscape and how the energy transition will embrace a new architecture— including sound policies and technologies to ensure energy access together with affordability, energy security, and energy sustainability. Given the high share of fossil fuels in ASEAN’s current energy mix (oil, coal, and natural gas comprise almost 80%), the clean use of fossil fuels through the deployment of clean technologies is indispensable for decarbonizing ASEAN’s emissions. The future energy landscape of ASEAN will rely on today’s actions, policies, and investments to change the fossil fuel-based energy system towards a cleaner energy system, but any decisions and energy policy measures to be rolled out during the energy transition need to be weighed against potentially higher energy costs, affordability issues, and energy security risks. This paper employs energy modelling scenarios to seek plausible policy options for ASEAN to achieve more emissions reductions as well as energy savings, and to assess the extent to which the composition of the energy mix will be changed under various energy policy scenarios. The results imply policy recommendations for accelerating the share of renewables, adopting clean technologies and the clean use of fossil fuels, and investing in climate-resilient energy quality infrastructure.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2819
Pages (from-to)1-29
Number of pages29
JournalSustainability (Switzerland)
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2021 Mar 1


  • Alternative Policy Scenarios (APSs)
  • And resiliency
  • Business as usual (BAU)
  • Clean technologies
  • Energy transition
  • Fossil fuels
  • Renewables

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


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