Assessment of low-carbon policy implications in China's urban residential sector

In this paper, we present a micro-model designed to assess the effectiveness of low-carbon policies in addressing the energy problems faced by the Chinese urban residential sector. This micro-model first evaluates CO₂ emissions based on available information for the residential sector, including the number of households, floor area and domestic appliance ownership. Two efficiency scenarios are then combined to form the simulation model: Chinese government policies and the low carbon plans of OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. The simulation model estimates future emissions growth and the CO₂ reduction potential of two efficiency scenarios. The results indicate that when government policies align with the efforts of residents, there is opportunity to reduce CO₂ emissions in Chinese residential buildings for a relatively low price. In the frozen technology scenario, data shows that in all 31 province-level divisions, CO₂ emission growth will see a 10-fold increase over the 2000 level. However, when compared with the frozen technology scenario, the reduction scenario shows reductions of 20% (warm areas) to 40% (cold areas). In the abatement scenario the reduction rates could be brought up to 50%. The model's outputs can be used to support decision-making when setting appropriate CO₂ emission reduction goals.