Creation of gridded population/residential electricity demand scenarios of Japan for 2050 using statistical approaches

Yoshiki Yamagata; Hajime Seya; Daisuke Murakami

doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2014.12.144

Creation of gridded population/residential electricity demand scenarios of Japan for 2050 using statistical approaches

Yoshiki Yamagata, Hajime Seya, Daisuke Murakami

Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Spatially-fine data of gridded population of the world (GPW) is useful for various objective including energy demand modelling, climate modelling, urban mitigation/adaptation planning, among others. However, future projection of GPW is typically performed using fairly simple methods, and its validity is still unclear. This study first empirically compares the performances of several representative methods for GPW projection (forecasting), subsequently it performs scenario creations of Japanese residential electricity demand for 2050 using the population projections, derived using the models, multiplied by an intensity. This paper discusses the potential dangers of applying widely used constant-share method to the depopulation country like Japan, which include urban declining regions.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1446-1450
Number of pages	5
Journal	Energy Procedia
Volume	61
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2014.12.144
Publication status	Published - 2014
Externally published	Yes
Event	6th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE 2014 - Taipei, Taiwan, Province of China Duration: 2014 May 30 → 2014 Jun 2

Keywords

Constant-share method
Gridded population of the world
Model ensemble
Share of growth method
Time series model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Energy(all)

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.egypro.2014.12.144

Cite this

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title = "Creation of gridded population/residential electricity demand scenarios of Japan for 2050 using statistical approaches",

abstract = "Spatially-fine data of gridded population of the world (GPW) is useful for various objective including energy demand modelling, climate modelling, urban mitigation/adaptation planning, among others. However, future projection of GPW is typically performed using fairly simple methods, and its validity is still unclear. This study first empirically compares the performances of several representative methods for GPW projection (forecasting), subsequently it performs scenario creations of Japanese residential electricity demand for 2050 using the population projections, derived using the models, multiplied by an intensity. This paper discusses the potential dangers of applying widely used constant-share method to the depopulation country like Japan, which include urban declining regions.",

keywords = "Constant-share method, Gridded population of the world, Model ensemble, Share of growth method, Time series model",

author = "Yoshiki Yamagata and Hajime Seya and Daisuke Murakami",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd.; 6th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE 2014 ; Conference date: 30-05-2014 Through 02-06-2014",

year = "2014",

doi = "10.1016/j.egypro.2014.12.144",

language = "English",

volume = "61",

pages = "1446--1450",

journal = "Energy Procedia",

issn = "1876-6102",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Creation of gridded population/residential electricity demand scenarios of Japan for 2050 using statistical approaches

AU - Yamagata, Yoshiki

AU - Seya, Hajime

AU - Murakami, Daisuke

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Spatially-fine data of gridded population of the world (GPW) is useful for various objective including energy demand modelling, climate modelling, urban mitigation/adaptation planning, among others. However, future projection of GPW is typically performed using fairly simple methods, and its validity is still unclear. This study first empirically compares the performances of several representative methods for GPW projection (forecasting), subsequently it performs scenario creations of Japanese residential electricity demand for 2050 using the population projections, derived using the models, multiplied by an intensity. This paper discusses the potential dangers of applying widely used constant-share method to the depopulation country like Japan, which include urban declining regions.

AB - Spatially-fine data of gridded population of the world (GPW) is useful for various objective including energy demand modelling, climate modelling, urban mitigation/adaptation planning, among others. However, future projection of GPW is typically performed using fairly simple methods, and its validity is still unclear. This study first empirically compares the performances of several representative methods for GPW projection (forecasting), subsequently it performs scenario creations of Japanese residential electricity demand for 2050 using the population projections, derived using the models, multiplied by an intensity. This paper discusses the potential dangers of applying widely used constant-share method to the depopulation country like Japan, which include urban declining regions.

KW - Constant-share method

KW - Gridded population of the world

KW - Model ensemble

KW - Share of growth method

KW - Time series model

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DO - 10.1016/j.egypro.2014.12.144

M3 - Conference article

AN - SCOPUS:84922380471

SN - 1876-6102

VL - 61

SP - 1446

EP - 1450

JO - Energy Procedia

JF - Energy Procedia

T2 - 6th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE 2014

Y2 - 30 May 2014 through 2 June 2014

ER -

Creation of gridded population/residential electricity demand scenarios of Japan for 2050 using statistical approaches

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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