Evaluation of CO₂ Emissions Reduction in the Japanese Residential Sector Through Energy-Saving Scenarios Based on Large-Scale Survey Data

In recent years, the effects of global climate change have become more apparent, and reducing energy-derived CO₂ emissions has become an important issue. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the CO₂ emission reduction effect according to energy conservation scenarios in the residential sector, based on actual data. In this study, we set up energy-saving scenarios assuming the implementation of energy-saving behavior and the replacement of energy-consuming equipment and calculated the CO₂ emission reduction effects of energy conservation for cooling, heating, and hot water using individual data from a large-scale survey of 29,161 samples. Consequently, we could quantify the relationship between the set scenarios and the associated CO₂ reduction effects. Based on the results, we compared countermeasures and considered their respective potentials. However, despite there being an aggressive scenario in which all households implemented energy conservation measures, the calculated savings were limited. Therefore, we also considered the potential of demand response as a rough estimate. The results indicated that, while continued efforts to curb energy demand are necessary, a comprehensive countermeasure approach is important for achieving carbon neutrality.