Excess all-cause deaths during coronavirus disease pandemic, Japan, January-May 2020

Takayuki Kawashima; Shuhei Nomura; Yuta Tanoue; Daisuke Yoneoka; Akifumi Eguchi; Chris Fook Sheng Ng; Kentaro Matsuura; Shoi Shi; Koji Makiyama; Shinya Uryu; Yumi Kawamura; Shinichi Takayanagi; Stuart Gilmour; Hiroaki Miyata; Tomimasa Sunagawa; Takuri Takahashi; Yuuki Tsuchihashi; Yusuke Kobayashi; Yuzo Arima; Kazuhiko Kanou; Motoi Suzuki; Masahiro Hashizume

doi:10.3201/eid2703.203925

Excess all-cause deaths during coronavirus disease pandemic, Japan, January-May 2020

Takayuki Kawashima, Shuhei Nomura, Yuta Tanoue, Daisuke Yoneoka, Akifumi Eguchi, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Kentaro Matsuura, Shoi Shi, Koji Makiyama, Shinya Uryu, Yumi Kawamura, Shinichi Takayanagi, Stuart Gilmour, Hiroaki Miyata, Tomimasa Sunagawa, Takuri Takahashi, Yuuki Tsuchihashi, Yusuke Kobayashi, Yuzo Arima, Kazuhiko KanouMotoi Suzuki, Masahiro Hashizume

Department of Health Policy and Management

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To provide insight into the mortality burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, we estimated the excess all-cause deaths for each week during the pandemic, January-May 2020, by prefecture and age group. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to vital statistics data. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the 1-sided prediction interval. A total of 208-4,322 all-cause excess deaths at the national level indicated a 0.03%-0.72% excess in the observed number of deaths. Prefecture and age structure consistency between the reported COVID-19 deaths and our estimates was weak, suggesting the need to use cause-specific analyses to distinguish between direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	789-795
Number of pages	7
Journal	Emerging Infectious Diseases
Volume	27
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2703.203925
Publication status	Published - 2021 Mar

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Epidemiology
Microbiology (medical)
Infectious Diseases

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.3201/eid2703.203925

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Kawashima, T., Nomura, S., Tanoue, Y., Yoneoka, D., Eguchi, A., Ng, C. F. S., Matsuura, K., Shi, S., Makiyama, K., Uryu, S., Kawamura, Y., Takayanagi, S., Gilmour, S., Miyata, H., Sunagawa, T., Takahashi, T., Tsuchihashi, Y., Kobayashi, Y., Arima, Y., ... Hashizume, M. (2021). Excess all-cause deaths during coronavirus disease pandemic, Japan, January-May 2020. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 27(3), 789-795. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2703.203925

Kawashima, T, Nomura, S, Tanoue, Y, Yoneoka, D, Eguchi, A, Ng, CFS, Matsuura, K, Shi, S, Makiyama, K, Uryu, S, Kawamura, Y, Takayanagi, S, Gilmour, S, Miyata, H, Sunagawa, T, Takahashi, T, Tsuchihashi, Y, Kobayashi, Y, Arima, Y, Kanou, K, Suzuki, M & Hashizume, M 2021, 'Excess all-cause deaths during coronavirus disease pandemic, Japan, January-May 2020', Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 789-795. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2703.203925

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title = "Excess all-cause deaths during coronavirus disease pandemic, Japan, January-May 2020",

abstract = "To provide insight into the mortality burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, we estimated the excess all-cause deaths for each week during the pandemic, January-May 2020, by prefecture and age group. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to vital statistics data. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the 1-sided prediction interval. A total of 208-4,322 all-cause excess deaths at the national level indicated a 0.03%-0.72% excess in the observed number of deaths. Prefecture and age structure consistency between the reported COVID-19 deaths and our estimates was weak, suggesting the need to use cause-specific analyses to distinguish between direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19.",

author = "Takayuki Kawashima and Shuhei Nomura and Yuta Tanoue and Daisuke Yoneoka and Akifumi Eguchi and Ng, {Chris Fook Sheng} and Kentaro Matsuura and Shoi Shi and Koji Makiyama and Shinya Uryu and Yumi Kawamura and Shinichi Takayanagi and Stuart Gilmour and Hiroaki Miyata and Tomimasa Sunagawa and Takuri Takahashi and Yuuki Tsuchihashi and Yusuke Kobayashi and Yuzo Arima and Kazuhiko Kanou and Motoi Suzuki and Masahiro Hashizume",

note = "Funding Information: This study was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (no. JPMH20HA2007 to M.S. and M.H.). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). All rights reserved.",

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T1 - Excess all-cause deaths during coronavirus disease pandemic, Japan, January-May 2020

AU - Kawashima, Takayuki

AU - Nomura, Shuhei

AU - Tanoue, Yuta

AU - Yoneoka, Daisuke

AU - Eguchi, Akifumi

AU - Ng, Chris Fook Sheng

AU - Matsuura, Kentaro

AU - Shi, Shoi

AU - Makiyama, Koji

AU - Uryu, Shinya

AU - Kawamura, Yumi

AU - Takayanagi, Shinichi

AU - Gilmour, Stuart

AU - Miyata, Hiroaki

AU - Sunagawa, Tomimasa

AU - Takahashi, Takuri

AU - Tsuchihashi, Yuuki

AU - Kobayashi, Yusuke

AU - Arima, Yuzo

AU - Kanou, Kazuhiko

AU - Suzuki, Motoi

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

N1 - Funding Information: This study was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (no. JPMH20HA2007 to M.S. and M.H.). Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). All rights reserved.

PY - 2021/3

Y1 - 2021/3

N2 - To provide insight into the mortality burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, we estimated the excess all-cause deaths for each week during the pandemic, January-May 2020, by prefecture and age group. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to vital statistics data. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the 1-sided prediction interval. A total of 208-4,322 all-cause excess deaths at the national level indicated a 0.03%-0.72% excess in the observed number of deaths. Prefecture and age structure consistency between the reported COVID-19 deaths and our estimates was weak, suggesting the need to use cause-specific analyses to distinguish between direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19.

AB - To provide insight into the mortality burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, we estimated the excess all-cause deaths for each week during the pandemic, January-May 2020, by prefecture and age group. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to vital statistics data. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the 1-sided prediction interval. A total of 208-4,322 all-cause excess deaths at the national level indicated a 0.03%-0.72% excess in the observed number of deaths. Prefecture and age structure consistency between the reported COVID-19 deaths and our estimates was weak, suggesting the need to use cause-specific analyses to distinguish between direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19.

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Excess all-cause deaths during coronavirus disease pandemic, Japan, January-May 2020

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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