Investigation of metabolic factors associated with eGFR decline over 1 year in a Japanese population without CKD

Aim: Early intervention before the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is essential to prevent end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and cardiovascular complications. This study evaluated the correlation between metabolic and lifestyle-related factors and the decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over 1 year in a Japanese population without CKD. Methods: Subjects who received two consecutive annual health checkups from 2013 to 2015 were involved. Factors associated with eGFR decline were identified using multiple regression models. Results: A total of 2531 subjects aged 58.9±11.7 years old were included in this study. Baseline levels of HDL-C and ApoA1 correlated with the eGFR decline over 1 year defined as eGFR reduction rate of 15% or more and/or eGFR at the next year ＜60 ml/min/m² (odds ratio (OR) 0.87 (per 10 mg/dl); 95% CI, 0.80–0.94; p=0.0012, 0.90 (per 10 mg/dl); 0.86–0.96; p=0.0004, respectively). A U-shaped relationship between the eGFR decline and HDL-C or ApoA1 levels was not observed in non-CKD population of this study. Metabolic syndrome was significantly associated with eGFR decline (OR 1.32; 1.04–1.67; p=0.0205), although obesity-related factors did not show a significant correlation with eGFR decline over 1 year. Conclusion: Low HDL-C and ApoA1 levels significantly correlated with eGFR decline in a short period of 1 year. Metabolic syndrome also showed a significant association with eGFR decline. This study suggests the importance of hypertension and low HDL-C in the metabolic syndrome effect on eGFR decline rather than obesity in non-CKD population.