TY - JOUR
T1 - Mean heart dose-based normal tissue complication probability model for pericardial effusion
T2 - a study in oesophageal cancer patients
AU - Fukada, Junichi
AU - Fukata, Kyohei
AU - Koike, Naoyoshi
AU - Kota, Ryuichi
AU - Shigematsu, Naoyuki
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI Grant-in Aid for Early Career Scientists given to N.K. (no. 20K16801) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - We investigated the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) of the incidence of pericardial effusion (PCE) based on the mean heart dose (MHD) in patients with oesophageal cancer treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy. The incidences of PCE in any grade (A-PCE) and symptomatic PCE (S-PCE) were evaluated separately. To identify predictors for PCE, several clinical and dose-volume parameters were analysed using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and multivariate regression analysis. To validate its clinical applicability, the generated NTCP model was compared to the Lyman–Kutcher–Burman (LKB) model. Among 229 eligible patients, A-PCE and S-PCE were observed in 100 (43.7%) and 18 (7.9%) patients, respectively. MHD showed a preferable area under the curve (AUC) value for S-PCE (AUC = 0.821) and A-PCE (AUC = 0.734). MHD was the only significant predictor for A-PCE; MHD and hypertension were selected as significant factors for S-PCE. The estimated NTCP, using the MHD-based model, showed excellent correspondence to the LKB model in A-PCE and S-PCE. The NTCP curve of A-PCE was gentler than that of S-PCE and had no threshold. The MHD-based NTCP model was simple but comparable to the LKB model for both A-PCE and S-PCE. Therefore, the estimated NTCP may provide clinically useful parameters for predicting PCE.
AB - We investigated the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) of the incidence of pericardial effusion (PCE) based on the mean heart dose (MHD) in patients with oesophageal cancer treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy. The incidences of PCE in any grade (A-PCE) and symptomatic PCE (S-PCE) were evaluated separately. To identify predictors for PCE, several clinical and dose-volume parameters were analysed using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and multivariate regression analysis. To validate its clinical applicability, the generated NTCP model was compared to the Lyman–Kutcher–Burman (LKB) model. Among 229 eligible patients, A-PCE and S-PCE were observed in 100 (43.7%) and 18 (7.9%) patients, respectively. MHD showed a preferable area under the curve (AUC) value for S-PCE (AUC = 0.821) and A-PCE (AUC = 0.734). MHD was the only significant predictor for A-PCE; MHD and hypertension were selected as significant factors for S-PCE. The estimated NTCP, using the MHD-based model, showed excellent correspondence to the LKB model in A-PCE and S-PCE. The NTCP curve of A-PCE was gentler than that of S-PCE and had no threshold. The MHD-based NTCP model was simple but comparable to the LKB model for both A-PCE and S-PCE. Therefore, the estimated NTCP may provide clinically useful parameters for predicting PCE.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85114886417&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85114886417&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-021-97605-9
DO - 10.1038/s41598-021-97605-9
M3 - Article
C2 - 34518576
AN - SCOPUS:85114886417
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 11
JO - Scientific reports
JF - Scientific reports
IS - 1
M1 - 18166
ER -
