On-treatment predictions of success in peg-interferon/ribavirin treatment using a novel formula

AIM: To predict treatment success using only simple clinical data from peg-interferon plus ribavirin therapy for chronic hepatitis C. METHODS: We analyzed the clinical data of 176 patients with chronic hepatitis and hepatitis C virus genotype 1 who received 48 wk standard therapy, derived a predictive formula to assess a sustained virological response of the individual patient using a logistic regression model and confirmed the validity of this formula. The formula was constructed using data from the first 100 patients enrolled and validated using data from the remaining 76 patients. RESULTS: Sustained virological response was obtained in 83 (47.2%) of the patients and we derived formulae to predict sustained virological response at pretreatment and weeks 4, 12 and 24. The likelihood of sustained virological response could be predicted effectively by the formulae at weeks 4, 12 and 24 (the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic: 0.821, 0.802, and 0.891, respectively), but not at baseline (0.570). The formula at week 48 was also constructed and validation by test data achieved good prediction with 0.871 of the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic. Prediction by this formula was always superior to that by viral kinetics. CONCLUSION: These results suggested that our formula combined with viral kinetics provides a clear direction of therapy for each patient and enables the best tailored treatment.