Prediction of metabolic syndrome using artificial neural network system based on clinical data including insulin resistance index and serum adiponectin

Objective: This study aimed to predict the 6-year incidence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) using an artificial neural network (ANN) system and multiple logistic regression (MLR) analysis based on clinical factors, including the insulin resistance index calculated by homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR). Design: Subjects were recruited from participants in annual health check-ups in both 2000 and 2006. A total of 410 Japanese male teachers and other workers at Keio University, 30-59 years of age at baseline, participated in this retrospective cohort study. Measurements: Clinical parameters were randomly divided into a training dataset and a validation dataset, and the ANN system and MLR analysis were applied to predict individual incidences. The leave some out cross validation method was used for validation. Results: The sensitivity of the prediction was 0.27 for the MLR model and 0.93 for the ANN system, while specificities were 0.95 and 0.91, respectively. Sensitivity analysis employing the ANN system identified BMI, age, diastolic blood pressure, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and HOMA-IR as important predictors, suggesting these factors to be non-linearly related to the outcome. Conclusion: We successfully predicted the 6-year incidence of MetS using an ANN system based on clinical data, including HOMA-IR and serum adiponectin, in Japanese male subjects.