Predictive bayesian model selection

Tomohiro Ando

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

72 Citations (Scopus)


We investigate the problem of evaluating the goodness of the predictive distributions of Bayesian models. Recently, deviance information criteria (DIC) has been extensively employed in various study areas to evaluate the Bayesian models, thanks to its simplicity of calculation from the posterior simulation outputs. Unfortunately, it is known that DIC often selects overfitted models. In this paper, we develop a new criterion which can be calculated easily from posterior outputs under the model misspecification situation. The proposed criterion is developed as an estimator of the posterior mean of the expected likelihood and is robust to improper priors. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to investigate the properties of the proposed criteria.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)13-38
Number of pages26
JournalAmerican Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences
Issue number1-2
Publication statusPublished - 2011


  • Effective number of parameters
  • Empirical Bayes Markov chain Monte Carlo
  • Hierarchical Bayesian model
  • Model misspecification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Business,Management and Accounting
  • Applied Mathematics


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