Quantifying the effects of the demographic transition in developing economies

Orazio P. Attanasio, Sagiri Kitao, Giovanni L. Violante

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

31 Citations (Scopus)


This paper evaluates quantitatively the impact of the observed demographic transition on aggregate variables (factor prices, saving rate, output growth), and on inter-generational welfare in developing economies. It does so by developing a large-scale two-region equilibrium overlapping generations model calibrated to the North (more developed countries) and the South (less developed countries). The paper highlights that the effects of the demographic trends for less developed regions may depend on the degree of international capital mobility and on the extent to which the large Pay-As-You-Go systems in place in the more developed world will be reformed.

Original languageEnglish
JournalAdvances in Macroeconomics
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2006 Jan 1


  • Capital flows
  • Demographic transition
  • Developing economies
  • Growth
  • Social security
  • Welfare

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)


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