Risk prediction of biomarkers for early multiple organ dysfunction in critically ill patients

Shigeto Ishikawa, Yuto Teshima, Hiroki Otsubo, Takashi Shimazui, Taka aki Nakada, Osamu Takasu, Kenichi Matsuda, Junichi Sasaki, Masakazu Nabeta, Takeshi Moriguchi, Takayuki Shibusawa, Toshihiko Mayumi, Shigeto Oda

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


Background: Shock and organ damage occur in critically ill patients in the emergency department because of biological responses to invasion, and cytokines play an important role in their development. It is important to predict early multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) because it is useful in predicting patient outcomes and selecting treatment strategies. This study examined the accuracy of biomarkers, including interleukin (IL)-6, in predicting early MOD in critically ill patients compared with that of quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA). Methods: This was a multicenter observational sub-study. Five universities from 2016 to 2018. Data of adult patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome who presented to the emergency department or were admitted to the intensive care unit were prospectively evaluated. qSOFA score and each biomarker (IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor-α, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin [PCT]) level were assessed on Days 0, 1, and 2. The primary outcome was set as MOD on Day 2, and the area under the curve (AUC) was analyzed to evaluate qSOFA scores and biomarker levels. Results: Of 199 patients, 38 were excluded and 161 were included. Patients with MOD on Day 2 had significantly higher qSOFA, SOFA, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores and a trend toward worse prognosis, including mortality. The AUC for qSOFA score (Day 0) that predicted MOD (Day 2) was 0.728 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.651–0.794). IL-6 (Day 1) showed the highest AUC among all biomarkers (0.790 [95% CI: 0.711–852]). The combination of qSOFA (Day 0) and IL-6 (Day 1) showed improved prediction accuracy (0.842 [95% CI: 0.771–0.893]). The combination model using qSOFA (Day 1) and IL-6 (Day 1) also showed a higher AUC (0.868 [95% CI: 0.799–0.915]). The combination model of IL-8 and PCT also showed a significant improvement in AUC. Conclusions: The addition of IL-6, IL-8 and PCT to qSOFA scores improved the accuracy of early MOD prediction.

Original languageEnglish
Article number132
JournalBMC Emergency Medicine
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2021 Dec


  • Critically ill
  • Interleukin
  • Multiple organ dysfunction
  • Predictive marker
  • qSOFA

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Emergency Medicine


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