Stability of production networks in East Asia: Duration and survival of trade

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Abstract

This paper sheds light on the stability of international production networks in East Asia from the perspective of the duration and survival of bilateral trade relationships at the product-line level. Using highly disaggregated data for intra-East Asian machinery trade, survival analysis is conducted as well as the examinations of the duration and volatility of trade relationships. The product-level analyses reveal that, compared to machinery finished products, machinery parts & components are traded through longer-lived and more stable relationships among East Asian countries. Once transactions are started, trade relationships of machinery parts & components are more likely to be maintained between countries even at a long distance, regardless of the exchange-rate fluctuations. The probability of discontinuing trade relationships of machinery finished products, on the other hand, are more likely to be sensitive to the level of trading cost as well as the exchange-rate fluctuations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)21-30
Number of pages10
JournalJapan and The World Economy
Volume22
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010 Jan

Keywords

  • Duration of trade
  • East Asia
  • Fragmentation
  • Survival analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Political Science and International Relations

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