Structural estimation of the output gap: A bayesian dsge approach

Yasuo Hirose, Saori Naganuma

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


We estimate the output gap that is consistent with a standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, where the output gap is defined as a deviation of output from its flexible-price equilibrium, using Bayesian methods. Our output gap illustrates the U.S. business cycles well, compared with other estimates. We find that the main source of the output gap movements is the demand shocks, but that the productivity shocks contributed to the stable output gap in the late 1990s. The robustness analysis shows that the estimated output gap is sensitive to the specification for monetary policy rules. (JEL E30, E32, C11).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)864-879
Number of pages16
JournalEconomic Inquiry
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2010 Oct
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Business,Management and Accounting
  • Economics and Econometrics


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