World Trading System under Stress: Scenarios for the Future

Mehmet Sait Akman; Shiro Armstrong; Uri Dadush; Anabel Gonzalez; Fukunari Kimura; Junji Nakagawa; Peter Rashish; Akihiko Tamura; Carlos A. Primo Braga

doi:10.1111/1758-5899.12776

World Trading System under Stress: Scenarios for the Future

Mehmet Sait Akman, Shiro Armstrong, Uri Dadush, Anabel Gonzalez, Fukunari Kimura, Junji Nakagawa, Peter Rashish, Akihiko Tamura, Carlos A. Primo Braga

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The world trading system has been remarkably successful in many respects but is now under great strain. The causes are deep-seated and require a strategic response. The future of the system depends critically on reinvigorating the WTO and policy change in the largest trading nations. Important measures are required to sustain the multilateral trading system, and urgent action is needed to avoid a scenario where the system fragments. The worst scenarios will disrupt global trade and see a world which splinters into large trading blocs (most likely centered on China, the European Union and the United States) and where trade relations are based to a large extent on relative power instead of rules. In such a world the smallest players – especially those whose trade is least covered by bilateral or regional agreements – will be at the greatest disadvantage. All countries will incur enormous costs only to try and reinvent a system that is already in place today under the WTO.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	360-366
Number of pages	7
Journal	Global Policy
Volume	11
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12776
Publication status	Published - 2020 May 1
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Global and Planetary Change
Economics and Econometrics
Political Science and International Relations
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Law

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10.1111/1758-5899.12776

Cite this

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abstract = "The world trading system has been remarkably successful in many respects but is now under great strain. The causes are deep-seated and require a strategic response. The future of the system depends critically on reinvigorating the WTO and policy change in the largest trading nations. Important measures are required to sustain the multilateral trading system, and urgent action is needed to avoid a scenario where the system fragments. The worst scenarios will disrupt global trade and see a world which splinters into large trading blocs (most likely centered on China, the European Union and the United States) and where trade relations are based to a large extent on relative power instead of rules. In such a world the smallest players – especially those whose trade is least covered by bilateral or regional agreements – will be at the greatest disadvantage. All countries will incur enormous costs only to try and reinvent a system that is already in place today under the WTO.",

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AU - Gonzalez, Anabel

AU - Kimura, Fukunari

AU - Nakagawa, Junji

AU - Rashish, Peter

AU - Tamura, Akihiko

AU - Primo Braga, Carlos A.

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World Trading System under Stress: Scenarios for the Future

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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