TY - JOUR

T1 - An Accelerated Failure Time Cure Model with Shifted Gamma Frailty and Its Application to Epidemiological Research

AU - Aida, Haro

AU - Hayashi, Kenichi

AU - Takeuchi, Ayano

AU - Sugiyama, Daisuke

AU - Okamura, Tomonori

N1 - Funding Information:
Funding: Kenichi Hayashi is supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research) under Grant No. 18K11197.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 by the authors.

PY - 2022/8

Y1 - 2022/8

N2 - Survival analysis is a set of methods for statistical inference concerning the time until the occurrence of an event. One of the main objectives of survival analysis is to evaluate the effects of different covariates on event time. Although the proportional hazards model is widely used in survival analysis, it assumes that the ratio of the hazard functions is constant over time. This assumption is likely to be violated in practice, leading to erroneous inferences and inappropriate conclusions. The accelerated failure time model is an alternative to the proportional hazards model that does not require such a strong assumption. Moreover, it is sometimes plausible to consider the existence of cured patients or long-term survivors. The survival regression models in such contexts are referred to as cure models. In this study, we consider the accelerated failure time cure model with frailty for uncured patients. Frailty is a latent random variable representing patients’ characteristics that cannot be described by observed covariates. This enables us to flexibly account for individual heterogeneities. Our proposed model assumes a shifted gamma distribution for frailty to represent uncured patients’ heterogeneities. We construct an estimation algorithm for the proposed model, and evaluate its performance via numerical simulations. Furthermore, as an application of the proposed model, we use a real dataset, Specific Health Checkups, concerning the onset of hypertension. Results from a model comparison suggest that the proposed model is superior to existing alternatives.

AB - Survival analysis is a set of methods for statistical inference concerning the time until the occurrence of an event. One of the main objectives of survival analysis is to evaluate the effects of different covariates on event time. Although the proportional hazards model is widely used in survival analysis, it assumes that the ratio of the hazard functions is constant over time. This assumption is likely to be violated in practice, leading to erroneous inferences and inappropriate conclusions. The accelerated failure time model is an alternative to the proportional hazards model that does not require such a strong assumption. Moreover, it is sometimes plausible to consider the existence of cured patients or long-term survivors. The survival regression models in such contexts are referred to as cure models. In this study, we consider the accelerated failure time cure model with frailty for uncured patients. Frailty is a latent random variable representing patients’ characteristics that cannot be described by observed covariates. This enables us to flexibly account for individual heterogeneities. Our proposed model assumes a shifted gamma distribution for frailty to represent uncured patients’ heterogeneities. We construct an estimation algorithm for the proposed model, and evaluate its performance via numerical simulations. Furthermore, as an application of the proposed model, we use a real dataset, Specific Health Checkups, concerning the onset of hypertension. Results from a model comparison suggest that the proposed model is superior to existing alternatives.

KW - accelerated failure time model

KW - cure model

KW - epidemiological research

KW - frailty model

KW - survival data analysis

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U2 - 10.3390/healthcare10081383

DO - 10.3390/healthcare10081383

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85137383297

SN - 2227-9032

VL - 10

JO - Healthcare (Switzerland)

JF - Healthcare (Switzerland)

IS - 8

M1 - 1383

ER -