Energy security is an increasingly important issue for East Asia Summit (EAS) countries. The Cebu declaration on East Asia Energy Security provides a common ground towards improving energy security. However, EAS countries are in a different situation and face different challenges. This leads to varying policies in dealing with energy security. This study provides an analysis of future environmental performance of three EAS countries with distinct socioeconomic and energy conditions from an energy security standpoint. A model which captures complex interrelationships between different aspects of energy security is developed for the study. Aspects related to energy, socioeconomics, and the environment are considered in the model. Policy scenarios which reflect governments' efforts to improve energy security are developed for simulation. Analysis is performed by comparing each country performances indicated by measures related to CO2 emissions. The results show that Japan would achieve a very small increase in CO2 emission growth. China would still produce the largest amount of CO2 emission, but its growth would decrease significantly. In the contrary, Indonesia's emission would be the smallest, but its growth would be the fastest. The results indicate that Indonesia's commitment to the Cebu declaration goal will not be sustained. The study suggests that the Cebu declaration should be moved forward by including legally binding commitments and clear CO2 emission reduction targets.
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