Hypercholesterolemia and lifetime risk of coronary heart disease in the general japanese population: Results from the suita cohort study

Lifetime risk (LTR) is a measure of disease burden, which presents the probability of occurrence of a specific disease in the remaining lifetime of a group of people for a given index age. This measure is useful for presenting the risk dynamics of a disease at the population level, which constitutes important public health information toward prevention. To date, there have been no studies investigating the LTR for coronary heart diseases (CHDs) in relation to hypercholesterolemia in Asian populations. Therefore, we estimated the LTR of CHDs according to serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Methods: The participants included in this study were 2,559 men and 2,848 women, enrolled in the Suita Cohort Study of urban residents followed up from 1989 to 2007 for a total of 69,823 person-years. We estimated the sex-and index-age-specific LTR for the first CHD event among participants with or without hypercholesterolemia (LDL-C ≥ 160 mg/dL), accounting for the competing risk for mortality. Results: For men with hypercholesterolemia, the LTR was 47.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 29.3–65.1%) and 44.5% (95% CI: 21.4–68.5%) for those aged 45 and 75, respectively. The LTRs of women with hypercholesterolemia were also higher than of those without hypercholesterolemia. However, their LTRs were lower for all index ages compared to men. These results did not differ for hypercholesterolemia defined by non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Conclusions: The presence of hypercholesterolemia increases the LTR for CHDs in the Japanese population, especially in men. This estimate can be used in preventive knowledge translation efforts at the population level.