One-year estimated glomerular filtration rate decline as a risk factor of cardiovascular and renal end-points in high-risk Japanese patients

Aims/Introduction: As estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) progression might correlate with cardiovascular prognosis, the correlation between 1-year decline in eGFR and cardiovascular incidences and renal outcome was investigated. Materials and Methods: The 1-year percentage decline in eGFR at the first observation year was calculated in a cohort of the standard versus intEnsive statin therapy for hypercholesteroleMic Patients with diAbetic retinopaTHY (EMPATHY) trial participants. The primary end-point was the composite cardiovascular end-point including the renal end-point. The associations between the incidence of each end-point and clinical markers were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results: A total of 4,461 patients were analyzed. The mean observation period was 765.3 ± 363.1 days. The best cut-off value of 1-year eGFR decline was 0.099 in the first year for renal end-point prediction by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The area under the curve of the model including the 1-year eGFR decline of the first year was significantly larger than the model without it (0.943, 95% confidence interval 0.915–0.971 to 0.967, 95% confidence interval 0.950–0.983, P = 0.019). Primary end-point incidences and the renal end-point were much higher in rapid eGFR decliners compared with non-decliners (P < 0.0001). The cardiovascular end-point incidence, except for the renal end-point, was not different between the groups. According to Cox regression analysis, 1-year eGFR decline during the first year was a significant risk factor for the end-points, including the renal end-point, independent of albuminuria and eGFR at baseline. Conclusions: The 1-year eGFR decline rate provided useful information for cardiovascular end-point predictions, including the renal end-point, in addition to the conventional risk factors.