Prostate-specific antigen nadir within 12 months as an early surrogate marker of biochemical failure and distant metastasis after low-dose-rate brachytherapy or external beam radiotherapy for localized prostate cancer

Prostate-specific antigen nadir (nPSA) after radiotherapy for localized prostate cancer has been investigated as a predictor. However, nPSA usually requires several years, limiting its clinical utility. We investigated the significance of nPSA within 12 months (nPSA12) after low-dose-rate prostate brachytherapy (LDR-PB) or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) on treatment outcomes. Between 2006 and 2014, 663 patients with prostate cancer were treated with LDR-PB or EBRT at two institutions. Four hundred and seventy-four men received LDR-PB and 189 men received EBRT, without androgen deprivation therapy. The Kaplan–Meier method was used for biochemical failure (BF)-free survival (BFFS) and distant metastasis (DM)-free survival (DMFS) analyses, and multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed. The median follow-up was 61.3 months. The median nPSA12 in the LDR-PB and EBRT cohorts was 0.7 and 1.0 ng/mL, respectively. The 7-year BFFS and DMFS rates in LDR-PB patients with nPSA12 ≤ 0.7 ng/mL were 99.1% and 99.5%, respectively; when nPSA12 was >0.7 ng/mL, they were 90.2% and 94.8%, respectively. In EBRT patients with nPSA12 ≤ 1.0 ng/mL, BFFS and DMFS rates were 85.4% and 98.5%, respectively; when nPSA12 was >1.0 ng/mL, they were 67.1% and 87.2%, respectively. nPSA12 was an independent predictor of BF and DM in both cohorts (LDR-PB, P = 0.004 and 0.020, respectively; EBRT, P = 0.005 and 0.041, respectively). The nPSA12 after LDR-PB or EBRT is significantly associated with treatment outcomes of prostate cancer. Higher nPSA12 may identify patients at high risk of relapse who might benefit from salvage treatment.