Simple prediction model for homologous recombination deficiency in breast cancers in adolescents and young adults

Purpose: Homologous recombination deficiency (HRD), which influences the efficacy of PARP inhibitor- and platinum agent-based therapies, is a prevalent phenotype of breast cancer in adolescents and young adults (AYAs; 15–39 years old). However, HRD score, indicating HRD status, is not routinely assessed in the breast oncology clinic, particularly in patients without germline BRCA1/2 mutations. Hence, we sought to develop a model for determining HRD status based on genetic and clinicopathological factors. Methods: Subjects were our own cohort of 46 Japanese AYA breast cancer patients and two existing breast cancer cohorts of US and European patients. Models for prediction of the HRD-high phenotype, defined as HRD score ≥ 42, were constructed by logistic regression analysis, using as explanatory variables genetic and clinicopathological factors assessable in the clinical setting. Results: In all three cohorts, the HRD-high phenotype was associated with germline BRCA1/2 mutation, somatic TP53 mutation, triple-negative subtype, and higher tumor grade. A model based on these four factors, developed using the US cohort, was validated in the Japanese and European AYA cases: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] was 0.90 and 0.96, respectively. A model based on three factors excluding germline BRCA1/2 mutation also yielded high-predictive power in cases from these two cohorts without germline BRCA1/2 mutations: AUC was 0.92 and 0.90, respectively. Conclusions: The HRD-high phenotype of AYA breast cancer patients can be deduced from genomic and pathological factors that are routinely examined in the oncology clinic, irrespective of germline BRCA1/2 mutations.