Spatially-explicit Resilience Modeling for PV Electricity Supply-demand Balance

We analyse the potential of PV (Photovoltaic) in terms of electricity resiliency by developing a spatially-explicit model for the PV supply and household demand balance. The model estimation is conducted using hourly solar irradiance data for a whole year for the Tokyo metropolitan area. We have tested the resiliency of the bland against several scenarios of climate uncertainties. Our analysis shows that, although PV supply for the whole Tokyo is smaller than household electricity demand, high level of electricity surplus exists in the western central area where the disaster risk is relatively low, while, few electricity surplus remains in the eastern high disaster risk areas. These results suggest that if we are to create community- based regional resilient electricity sharing grid system ([1]) in the future, we need to create additionally a city scale multi-layer electricity sharing system for adjusting the dynamics demand-supply discrepancies by transferring PV surplus electricity to the high risk areas.