TY - JOUR
T1 - Testing for shifts in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component
AU - Perron, Pierre
AU - Yabu, Tomoyoshi
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by National Science Foundation grant SES-0649350 (to P.P.). The authors thank Eiji Kurozumi, Kenji Miyazaki, an associate editor, and two referees for useful comments.
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - We consider testing for structural changes in the trend function of a time series without any prior knowledge of whether the noise component is stationary or integrated. Following Perron and Yabu (2009), we consider a quasi-feasible generalized least squares procedure that uses a super-efficient estimate of the sum of the autoregressive parameters α when α = 1. This allows tests of basically the same size with stationary or integrated noise regardless of whether the break is known or unknown, provided that the Exp functional of Andrews and Ploberger (1994) is used in the latter case. To improve the finite-sample properties, we use the bias-corrected version of the estimate of α proposed by Roy and Fuller (2001). Our procedure has a power function close to that attainable if we knew the true value of α in many cases. We also discuss the extension to the case of multiple breaks.
AB - We consider testing for structural changes in the trend function of a time series without any prior knowledge of whether the noise component is stationary or integrated. Following Perron and Yabu (2009), we consider a quasi-feasible generalized least squares procedure that uses a super-efficient estimate of the sum of the autoregressive parameters α when α = 1. This allows tests of basically the same size with stationary or integrated noise regardless of whether the break is known or unknown, provided that the Exp functional of Andrews and Ploberger (1994) is used in the latter case. To improve the finite-sample properties, we use the bias-corrected version of the estimate of α proposed by Roy and Fuller (2001). Our procedure has a power function close to that attainable if we knew the true value of α in many cases. We also discuss the extension to the case of multiple breaks.
KW - Generalized least squares procedure
KW - Median-unbiased estimate
KW - Structural change
KW - Super-efficient estimate
KW - Unit root
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U2 - 10.1198/jbes.2009.07268
DO - 10.1198/jbes.2009.07268
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:74049143004
SN - 0735-0015
VL - 27
SP - 369
EP - 396
JO - Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
JF - Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
IS - 3
ER -