Usefulness of a simple clinical risk prediction method, modified acef score, for transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Background: We assessed the predictive accuracy of a simple risk score, modified age, creatinine clearance, ejection fraction (ACEFmodif) score, for outcome of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Methods and Results: We prospectively included 703 consecutive patients undergoing TAVI. Patients were divided into low, middle and high ACEFmodif tertiles. Increased ACEFmodif score was associated with a significantly higher 1-year mortality rate (22%, 28% and 36%, P<0.01) and higher risk of acute kidney injury (AKI; 10%, 10% and 22%, P<0.01). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, ACEFmodif score was the only independent predictor of AKI. On multivariate Cox regression, ACEFmodif score was an independent predictor of 1-year cumulative mortality. Although the area under curve (AUC) showed that all risk scores poorly predicted the incidence of AKI and 1-year cumulative mortality, ACEFmodif score was more efficient in predicting the incidence of AKI compared with STS, LES and ES II (AUC, 0.61, 0.55, 0.54, 0.57, respectively). Furthermore, ACEFmodif score had similar accuracy in predicting 1-year mortality compared with other risk scores (AUC, 0.61, 0.61, 0.61, 0.61, respectively). Conclusions: ACEFmodif score may provide useful information for predicting AKI, 30-day and 1-year mortality in patients undergoing TAVI, but these results need further confirmation.